Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x6978…08d8 other 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$73,262 (+19%) realized +$71,040 · open +$2,222
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%164W / 156L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$1,319per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$8,329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,715
7 days−$8,525
14 days−$8,875
30 days−$8,215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$6,420
world 16% −$12,483
crypto 13% +$6,222
politics 8% −$1,813
tech 5% −$1,598
sports 5% +$44,537
economics 4% +$37,200
finance 0% +$67
culture 0% +$100
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -76.6% -78.9% 11% 8% -77.4%
≤30d 42 -69.3% -72.2% 17% 12% -34.9%
≤90d 79 +44.7% +30.9% 37% 28% -7.8%
all 320 +51.6% +37.2% 51% 38% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.2% 38% +2.9%
10% +24.0% 33% -7.0%
15% ← realistic here +12.1% 27% -16.0%
20% +1.1% 23% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$969 vs −$671 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$8,329
Realized+$71,040
Unrealized+$2,222
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses164 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions17
Markets (closed)320 / 294
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$1,319
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 72¢ $909 $2,270 +$1,361 (+150%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 7¢ 5¢ $1,652 $1,354 −$298 (-18%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 10¢ 12¢ $987 $1,234 +$247 (+25%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 37¢ 90¢ $418 $1,017 +$599 (+143%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 67¢ $743 $767 +$24 (+3%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 56¢ $250 $565 +$315 (+126%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $445 $473 +$29 (+6%)
Eric Adams charged by December 31? No 62¢ 72¢ $157 $185 +$27 (+17%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 36¢ $195 $180 −$15 (-8%)
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 90¢ $128 $179 +$51 (+40%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 46¢ 72¢ $28 $44 +$16 (+57%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 65¢ 100¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+53%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+77%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 13¢ 38¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+188%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 65¢ 1¢ $150 $3 −$147 (-98%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 79¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 27 $88 −$118 -134%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Jun 27 $45 −$99 -222%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 27 $3 −$61 -2018%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 27 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $227 −$348 -153%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $449 −$462 -103%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading? Jun 27 $9 −$92 -1072%
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Cha Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Jun 27 $22 −$101 -465%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jun 27 $260 −$427 -164%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $390 −$450 -116%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Jun 27 $13 −$25 -189%
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? Jun 27 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chat Jun 27 $8 −$8 -103%
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatb Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jun 27 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $143 −$432 -302%
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair? Jun 27 $455 −$455 -100%
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? Jun 27 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Jun 27 $172 −$171 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $53 +$49 +93%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $976 +$624 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $436 +$24 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$166 +325%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2,788 +$433 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11,645 +$181 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 30 $54 +$46 +86%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $40 +$6 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $53 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $156 40h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $61 40h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $347 40h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $78 40h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $2 40h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $2 40h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $23 40h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $2 40h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 41h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $2 41h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $109 41h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $3 42h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 43h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 43h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 43h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 43h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $152 43h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $484 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $245 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $184 4d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $2 6d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $170 6d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $276 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 23¢ $51 6d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1 7d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $16 9d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $6 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $150 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,329.18 · official $8,329.28 (match) · 3500 history records