Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x697b…ea3a other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-6%) realized −$14 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$50
weather 18% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.1% -21.3% 55% 55% -8.1%
≤30d 11 -13.1% -21.3% 55% 55% -8.1%
≤90d 11 -13.1% -21.3% 55% 55% -8.1%
all 11 -13.1% -21.3% 55% 55% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 55% -8.1%
10% -28.9% 55% -16.9%
15% -35.7% 45% -24.9%
20% -42.0% 36% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 +$21 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$5 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.75 · official $95.75 (match) · 26 history records