Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
69 0x6983…88c3 sports 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,557 (+7%) realized +$3,021 · open +$536
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%90W / 94L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$538est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$782
14 days+$296
30 days+$967
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$3,765
other 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +45.1% +31.2% 62% 54% +4.3%
≤30d 57 +20.7% +9.2% 51% 44% -2.8%
≤90d 184 +15.4% +4.4% 49% 41% -3.3%
all 184 +15.4% +4.4% 49% 41% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 41% -3.3%
10% -5.6% 40% -12.5%
15% -14.7% 38% -21.0%
20% -23.1% 36% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$127 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$1,133
Realized+$3,021
Unrealized+$536
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses90 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$538
Open positions3
Markets (closed)184 / 187
History coverage84d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Walczaki 44¢ 100¢ $414 $937 +$523 (+126%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 54¢ 57¢ $145 $154 +$9 (+6%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs AM Gaming (+3.5) Eternal Fire 43¢ 47¢ $38 $42 +$4 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $50 +$80 +158%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,999 +$343 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $265 +$424 +160%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $193 −$190 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $66 +$78 +119%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $91 +$213 +233%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $112 +$82 +73%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $24 +$78 +325%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $173 −$170 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $140 −$138 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $242 −$119 -49%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $34 +$51 +152%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $31 +$64 +206%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $118 +$155 +131%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,580 +$490 +31%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) Jun 08 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $130 +$99 +76%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) Jun 07 $215 +$84 +39%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,509 +$18 +1%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $90 −$88 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $114 −$111 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $101 −$97 -96%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $220 +$158 +72%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $328 +$212 +65%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $1,112 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $147 −$33 -23%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Jun 03 $55 +$11 +20%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $89 +$207 +233%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $80 +$78 +97%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $85 +$83 +97%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $131 +$243 +185%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 01 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $58 +$137 +238%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 31 $59 +$73 +124%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) May 31 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $33 +$121 +365%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Tricked - Map 1 Winner May 30 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 29 $168 +$2 +1%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 29 $45 −$44 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Group May 28 $21 +$76 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 43¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 45¢ $65 1h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs AM Gaming (+3.5) BUY Eternal Fire 43¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 44¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 44¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 44¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 44¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 44¢ $68 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 44¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 20¢ $40 14h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 54¢ $147 14h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 43¢ $61 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 85¢ $1,999 2d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $106 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $38 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $105 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $130 3d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 54¢ $95 3d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 54¢ $98 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $2,002 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 100¢ $2,000 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $91 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $66 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $112 5d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Leo Team 23¢ $24 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $99 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $60 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,132.79 · official $1,132.79 (match) · 651 history records