Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6986…0acc crypto 552 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,591 (-4%) realized −$2,605 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%209W / 342L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,641
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 45% -16.9%
≤30d 39 -14.2% -22.4% 38% 36% -22.4%
≤90d 551 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 37% -18.0%
all 551 -9.8% -18.4% 38% 37% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 37% -18.0%
10% -26.2% 37% -25.8%
15% -33.3% 37% -33.0%
20% -39.9% 35% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$103 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$214
Realized−$2,605
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses209 / 342
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)551 / 552
History coverage87d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 44¢ 48¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $208 +$243 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $312 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $322 −$310 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $312 +$340 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $248 +$226 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $146 −$101 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $311 +$345 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $218 +$196 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$21 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $333 −$320 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $521 +$542 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $630 −$607 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $518 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$27 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $53 +$128 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$50 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$35 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3PM ET Jun 07 $177 −$168 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $31 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 23 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $186 +$87 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8PM ET May 23 $261 −$251 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 21 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 21 $4 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10AM ET May 21 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $21 −$18 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $208 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $326 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $114 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $652 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $312 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $45 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $146 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $208 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $414 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.11 · official $189.31 · 1141 history records