Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6989…71d3 sports 17 markets active 16h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$112
other 50% −$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 24% -17.7%
≤30d 17 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 24% -17.7%
≤90d 17 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 24% -17.7%
all 17 -25.6% -32.7% 29% 24% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 24% -17.7%
10% -39.1% 24% -25.6%
15% -45.0% 24% -32.8%
20% -50.4% 24% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$46 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $27 +$70 +264%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $27 −$9 -33%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $106 −$23 -22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$47 -87%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $80 +$65 +81%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 +$59 +111%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $213 +$250 +118%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $235 −$25 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $104 +$10 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 36h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $53 36h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $53 42h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $97 43h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $53 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $72 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $53 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $145 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $27 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $53 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $463 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $53 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $53 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $182 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $181 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $213 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $104 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records