Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:29:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x698b…4426 sports 332 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68,132 (+21%) realized +$68,062 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%171W / 144L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$970per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$4,519est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6,734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,493
7 days−$1,029
14 days−$17,990
30 days+$14,939
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$76,804
other 1% −$184
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +12.5% +1.8% 59% 53% -18.0%
≤30d 155 -8.8% -17.5% 48% 43% -0.9%
≤90d 315 +5.8% -4.3% 54% 51% +12.4%
all 315 +5.8% -4.3% 54% 51% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 51% +12.4%
10% -13.5% 50% +1.7%
15% ← realistic here -21.8% 47% -8.1%
20% -29.5% 42% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,109) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,032 vs −$694 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$6,734
Realized+$68,062
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses171 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$4,519
Open positions17
Markets (closed)315 / 332
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$970
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez Jan-Lennard Struff 72¢ 72¢ $2,593 $2,575 −$18 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 60¢ 60¢ $1,810 $1,785 −$25 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 66¢ 66¢ $781 $777 −$4 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Marco Trungelliti 22¢ 22¢ $440 $430 −$10 (-2%)
Wimbledon ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alejandro Tabilo Kamil Majchrzak 65¢ 66¢ $310 $318 +$7 (+2%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 78¢ $182 $282 +$100 (+55%)
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata 70¢ 72¢ $110 $114 +$4 (+4%)
Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) Norrie 48¢ 45¢ $120 $112 −$8 (-6%)
Shapovalov vs. Busta: Match O/U 38.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Troyes: Cosme de Ravel vs Marat Sharipov Cosme de Ravel 55¢ 56¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 68¢ $51 $62 +$11 (+21%)
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Wimbledon ATP: Adrian Mannarino vs Titouan Droguet Adrian Mannarino 57¢ 62¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Arda Güler win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $2,493 −$2,493 -100%
Set Handicap: Bertola (-1.5) vs Basing (+1.5) Jun 25 $105 +$110 +104%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $1,510 +$990 +66%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $225 −$225 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $423 +$319 +75%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Colton Smith Jun 24 $1,101 +$1,361 +124%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes Jun 24 $9 +$5 +54%
Faria vs. Pavlovic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $5 +$7 +124%
Set Handicap: Kjaer (-1.5) vs Dodig (+1.5) Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 24 $580 −$580 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Jun 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $2,685 −$1,685 -63%
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker Jun 23 $6 +$4 +62%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui Jun 22 $620 +$1,380 +222%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans Jun 22 $152 +$56 +37%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $695 +$55 +8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Petra Marcinko Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Anton Matusevich vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $422 −$422 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs David Goffin Jun 22 $570 −$570 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $245 +$255 +104%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $11,725 −$11,710 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 20 $976 +$41 +4%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,942 −$2,898 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $390 +$610 +156%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 +$32 +64%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) Jun 19 $249 +$194 +78%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $36 +$85 +233%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,329 −$1,329 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Sweeny (+1.5) Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 18 $390 −$390 -100%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 18 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 18 $560 −$560 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $786 −$786 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 18 $1,208 −$1,208 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 18 $348 −$348 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 18 $600 −$600 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 18 $800 −$800 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 18 $720 −$720 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 18 $620 −$620 -100%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 18 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 60¢ $1,200 21m
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $59 21m
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $62 28m
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $61 29m
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $11 31m
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $391 53m
Set Handicap: Norrie (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5) BUY Norrie 48¢ $122 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $25 1h
Shapovalov vs. Busta: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 50¢ $108 1h
Troyes: Cosme de Ravel vs Marat Sharipov BUY Cosme de Ravel 55¢ $24 2h
Troyes: Cosme de Ravel vs Marat Sharipov BUY Cosme de Ravel 55¢ $3 2h
Troyes: Cosme de Ravel vs Marat Sharipov BUY Cosme de Ravel 55¢ $74 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 22¢ $424 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 22¢ $1 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Marco Trungelliti 22¢ $14 4h
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $19 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $4 14h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $19 15h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $18 17h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $0 17h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $3 21h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $2 22h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $47 25h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1,008 32h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1,080 32h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $223 32h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $7 32h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $18 32h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $7 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,734.49 · official $6,714.47 (match) · 3500 history records