Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x698d…e0f1 world 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$5
other 23% −$14
politics 21% −$1
sports 21% +$11
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.4% -8.3% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 30 -2.1% -11.4% 37% 7% -9.1%
all 46 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 11% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 4% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage530d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $12 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $18 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $19 $0 -1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $28 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $144 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $22 −$1 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 07 $45 +$2 +3%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $11 −$1 -4%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $7 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $289 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $24 +$4 +19%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Apr 07 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Montoya stay with his girlfriend? Mar 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $18 −$4 -20%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-03-05? Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
La Salle vs. George Mason Mar 04 $21 −$4 -17%
Akron vs. Toledo Mar 04 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Trump say 'mineral' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $19 $0 +0%
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump say 'China' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $12 $0 -3%
San José State vs. Utah State Mar 04 $8 +$8 +100%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Feb 18 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $43 34m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $43 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $44 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $11 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records