Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6990…1f8d crypto 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate86%116W / 19L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days−$198
14 days−$190
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% +$149
weather 25% −$172
politics 24% +$42
other 13% +$4
world 6% +$52
sports 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 23 -3.6% -12.8% 96% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 49 -2.5% -11.8% 92% 2% -11.0%
all 135 -1.2% -10.6% 86% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$1,106
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses116 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)135 / 141
History coverage604d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C or below on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $390 $390 +$0 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $195 $200 +$4 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $188 $199 +$11 (+6%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 99¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 25 $198 −$198 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $275 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $293 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $136 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $162 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $297 +$3 +1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $101 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $154 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $74 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $251 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26? May 26 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 16? May 17 $397 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 16? May 17 $387 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 16? May 17 $234 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 16? May 17 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 16? May 15 $235 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting May 14 $170 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $317 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on May 13? May 14 $653 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on May 12? May 12 $768 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $442 −$34 -8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 05 $271 +$11 +4%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? May 02 $145 +$3 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $182 +$7 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $199 +$15 +8%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 02 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on April 22? Apr 23 $67 +$1 +2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $50 +$17 +35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on April 3, 2026? Apr 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? Apr 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 02 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 02 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Mar 29 $400 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $86 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $390 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $196 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $79 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $198 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $99 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $113 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $49 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $136 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $293 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $55 14d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $101 14d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $101 14d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $119 14d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $84 15d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $99 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $99 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 15d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 27d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $101 27d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $100 27d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $251 29d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $249 31d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $154 31d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $74 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,105.79 · official $1,105.79 (match) · 669 history records