Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6991…6ad6 weather 303 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+2%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate87%256W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$28
14 days+$93
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$97
other 1% −$20
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +2.0% -7.7% 91% 18% -7.8%
≤30d 211 +1.9% -7.8% 91% 23% -7.8%
≤90d 293 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 25% -8.3%
all 293 -1.4% -10.8% 87% 25% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 25% -8.3%
10% -19.3% 4% -17.1%
15% -27.1% 2% -25.1%
20% -34.3% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses256 / 37
Open positions10
Markets (closed)293 / 303
History coverage62d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 22? No 95¢ 100¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 23? No 89¢ 92¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 24? No 88¢ 88¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 24? No 96¢ 95¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? No 91¢ 90¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 23? No 92¢ 90¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 23? No 91¢ 90¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? No 88¢ 84¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 24? No 94¢ 95¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 23? No 91¢ 92¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$6 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$3 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? Jun 21 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $35 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? Jun 19 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$2 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $10 14m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $35 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $41 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $38 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $38 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $33 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $37 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $34 11h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $35 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $38 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $38 11h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $17 12h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $14 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $12 14h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $12 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.66 · official $322.44 (match) · 767 history records