Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x6992…e4eb world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-2%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$7
sports 14% −$30
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -25.7% -32.7% 12% 0% -11.9%
all 8 -25.7% -32.7% 12% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 0% -11.9%
10% -39.2% 0% -20.3%
15% -45.1% 0% -28.0%
20% -50.4% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage81d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $394 $394 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 27 $390 −$2 -0%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? Jun 18 $279 $0 +0%
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) May 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 08 $45 −$5 -11%
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) May 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $454 $0 +0%
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) Apr 08 $207 +$13 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $394 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $387 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $390 2h
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? SELL No 93¢ $279 9d
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? BUY No 93¢ $279 9d
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) BUY Sønderjyske Fodbold 2¢ $7 50d
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) BUY Sønderjyske Fodbold 2¢ $7 50d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 50d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 50d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 50d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 50d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 50d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Talaea El Gaish SC 3¢ $14 51d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Talaea El Gaish SC 3¢ $12 51d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Talaea El Gaish SC 3¢ $3 51d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 51d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 51d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 51d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 51d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $454 65d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $454 66d
Spread: Aalesunds FK (-2.5) BUY Fredrikstad FK 94¢ $207 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.25 · official $394.25 (match) · 23 history records