Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x6992…6c1d world 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,452 (+5%) realized +$21,220 · open −$13,768
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%73W / 59L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$882per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,997now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$7,249
finance 35% −$3,624
other 3% −$1,416
sports 2% −$19
economics 2% −$400
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +232.5% +200.9% 100% 100% +245.9%
≤30d 22 +62.2% +46.7% 41% 41% -0.1%
≤90d 127 +37.1% +24.1% 55% 46% +4.8%
all 132 +36.3% +23.3% 55% 47% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.3% 47% +5.2%
10% +11.5% 36% -4.8%
15% ← realistic here +0.7% 29% -14.0%
20% -9.2% 25% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,050) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$532 vs −$401 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$4,997
Realized+$21,220
Unrealized−$13,768
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses73 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions23
Markets (closed)132 / 155
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$882
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $800 $955 +$155 (+19%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 29¢ 16¢ $1,502 $807 −$695 (-46%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1,055 $707 −$348 (-33%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $1,310 $600 −$710 (-54%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $3,938 $431 −$3,507 (-89%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $1,188 $381 −$807 (-68%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $762 $190 −$572 (-75%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 38¢ 3¢ $2,584 $177 −$2,407 (-93%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $1,080 $161 −$919 (-85%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $204 $148 −$56 (-27%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $1,415 $122 −$1,293 (-91%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $603 $89 −$514 (-85%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 42¢ 17¢ $168 $68 −$100 (-60%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $880 $54 −$826 (-94%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-16%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $108 $24 −$85 (-78%)
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 5¢ 36¢ $3 $23 +$20 (+625%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $990 $19 −$971 (-98%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Yes 34¢ 2¢ $136 $6 −$130 (-95%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 12¢ 41¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+245%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 59¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $86 +$154 +178%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 20 $2,068 +$5,927 +287%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $900 +$940 +104%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $700 +$3,402 +486%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,299 −$630 -48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $3,198 −$2,542 -80%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 14 $2,638 −$712 -27%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $11,106 −$2,094 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $1,457 −$736 -50%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $1,202 −$657 -55%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 10 $887 −$560 -63%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $84 +$9 +11%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 07 $1,400 −$148 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,159 +$1,349 +116%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $62 +$26 +42%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 01 $919 −$266 -29%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $847 −$676 -80%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1,070 +$861 +80%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 30 $7 +$2 +26%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $466 −$11 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $132 −$106 -80%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $176 +$11 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,294 +$180 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $690 −$480 -70%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $197 +$36 +18%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1,232 +$116 +9%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $682 +$1,518 +223%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 25 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $556 +$461 +83%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $24 −$6 -25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $437 −$413 -95%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $167 −$159 -95%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 24 $522 −$91 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 23 $1,344 −$991 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 23 $2,084 −$850 -41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 23 $1,506 −$583 -39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $2,436 +$651 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 23 $6,796 −$3,360 -49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $162 +$88 +54%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 20? May 20 $150 −$150 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 20? May 20 $271 −$270 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 19 $476 −$246 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 19 $1,162 +$348 +30%
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? May 18 $240 +$6 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $610 −$511 -84%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 11 $1,023 −$566 -55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $150 −$38 -25%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by M May 07 $370 +$602 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 29m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 57m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $76 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $563 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $161 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $6 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $11 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $283 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,140 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,325 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,996.51 · official $4,957.05 (match) · 3500 history records