Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6995…1187 crypto 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-2%) realized −$122 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%105W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days−$59
14 days−$27
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$193
other 17% +$45
sports 6% +$118
weather 5% −$61
politics 2% +$3
finance 1% −$20
economics 1% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -10.6% -19.1% 51% 41% -14.1%
≤30d 182 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 48% -13.1%
≤90d 182 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 48% -13.1%
all 182 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 48% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 48% -13.1%
10% -22.9% 41% -21.4%
15% -30.4% 30% -29.0%
20% -37.2% 23% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses105 / 77
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)182 / 199
History coverage22d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 in June? Yes 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$17 +66%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +41%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +35%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +118%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$4 -20%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$54 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$35 +170%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 44m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $42 45m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $29 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 6h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 29¢ $8 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $7 10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands $10 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.88 · official $138.88 (match) · 473 history records