Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6995…c072 sports 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$452 (-9%) realized −$442 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%44W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$193
14 days−$193
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$408
sports 31% −$120
crypto 2% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -42.4% -47.8% 0% 0% -47.8%
≤30d 9 -28.8% -35.6% 33% 11% -37.1%
≤90d 29 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 21% -23.2%
all 184 -17.7% -25.6% 24% 12% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 12% -19.1%
10% -32.7% 8% -26.8%
15% -39.2% 5% -33.9%
20% -45.1% 3% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$442
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses44 / 140
Open positions2
Markets (closed)184 / 186
History coverage183d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 93¢ 81¢ $99 $86 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $456 −$193 -42%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $100 +$24 +24%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $108 −$24 -22%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 23 $4 −$2 -40%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 23 $102 −$72 -71%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 23 $2 $0 -20%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 20 $181 −$30 -17%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 19 $10 $0 +5%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 15 $387 −$88 -23%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 11 $320 +$17 +5%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 04 $268 −$13 -5%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 01 $10 +$13 +134%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 27 $16 −$3 -20%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 26 $20 +$8 +38%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 21 $123 +$15 +12%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 20 $29 −$7 -22%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 04 $8 −$4 -46%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 04 $67 −$43 -65%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 03 $20 −$2 -11%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 30 $3 +$1 +38%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 29 $156 +$24 +15%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 29 $70 −$4 -6%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 26 $56 +$5 +9%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 24 $65 −$5 -8%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 21 $59 −$21 -36%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 20 $28 +$3 +11%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 13 $109 $0 -0%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 05 $122 +$2 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 04 $14 +$4 +30%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 28 $99 +$2 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Feb 14 $10 −$6 -65%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 12 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 07 $2 +$4 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 06 $12 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 06 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 06 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 06 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 06 $18 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 06 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 05 $8 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 93¢ $99 1h
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $99 2h
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 47¢ $45 10d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 57¢ $60 10d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 40¢ $40 10d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 52¢ $54 11d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 41¢ $42 11d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 48¢ $52 11d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 48¢ $47 11d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 55¢ $56 11d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 45¢ $47 11d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 53¢ $58 11d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 39¢ $38 11d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 75¢ $76 13d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 95¢ $98 13d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 80¢ $100 19d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 37¢ $36 24d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 56¢ $57 24d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 50¢ $49 24d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 50¢ $51 25d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 9¢ $0 26d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 11¢ $0 26d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 12¢ $2 26d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 1¢ $2 26d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 14¢ $3 26d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 14¢ $25 26d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 14¢ $1 26d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 47¢ $102 27d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.50 · official $187.50 (match) · 885 history records