Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:01:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
69 0x6997…3179 politics 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$284 (+19%) realized +$284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$187
14 days+$187
30 days+$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$606
sports 9% −$134
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +274.8% +239.1% 100% 100% +239.1%
≤30d 1 +274.8% +239.1% 100% 100% +239.1%
≤90d 1 +274.8% +239.1% 100% 100% +239.1%
all 11 -21.4% -28.9% 27% 27% +19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 27% +19.5%
10% -35.7% 27% +8.0%
15% -41.9% 27% -2.4%
20% -47.6% 27% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +275% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$340 vs −$69 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage606d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les Jun 24 $68 +$187 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 07 $1 $0 -10%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 55% and 60% of the vote in the 2025 NY Nov 05 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 13 $786 +$765 +97%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jun 08 $134 −$134 -100%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Nov 15 $66 +$68 +102%
Will Trump say "tampon" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump say "weed" on The Joe Rogan Experience? Nov 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $150 −$150 -100%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House Nov 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les SELL Yes 75¢ $255 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by les BUY Yes 19¢ $68 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 228d
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 55% and 60% of the vote in the 2025 NY BUY Yes 28¢ $47 231d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York SELL Yes 38¢ $1,551 375d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York BUY Yes 24¢ $31 378d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York BUY Yes 24¢ $100 378d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York BUY Yes 24¢ $100 378d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York BUY Yes 18¢ $555 380d
Commanders vs. Eagles BUY Commanders 34¢ $134 586d
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? SELL Yes 97¢ $134 586d
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? BUY Yes 48¢ $66 589d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 41¢ $150 595d
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House BUY Yes 15¢ $79 595d
Will Trump say "weed" on The Joe Rogan Experience? BUY Yes 40¢ $80 606d
Will Trump say "tampon" on The Joe Rogan Experience? BUY Yes 38¢ $58 606d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records