Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x6999…ae54 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$916
sports 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -42.3% -47.8% 43% 43% -52.0%
≤30d 7 -42.3% -47.8% 43% 43% -52.0%
≤90d 7 -42.3% -47.8% 43% 43% -52.0%
all 7 -42.3% -47.8% 43% 43% -52.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 43% -52.0%
10% -52.8% 29% -56.6%
15% -57.3% 14% -60.8%
20% -61.5% 14% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$295 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $950 −$930 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $405 +$79 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$51 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$118 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 30m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 32m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 45m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 58m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $273 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $211 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $253 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $177 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 71¢ $141 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records