Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x699c…5dc1 sports 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$24,259 (-4%) realized −$24,243 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate60%116W / 77L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,378per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$1,293est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$665
7 days−$2,156
14 days−$2,156
30 days−$803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$20,330
crypto 23% −$212
politics 17% −$150
world 15% −$915
other 12% −$58
tech 2% +$100
finance 1% +$104
economics 0% −$17
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 19% -10.7%
≤30d 44 -4.0% -13.2% 48% 20% -9.9%
≤90d 193 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 25% -12.4%
all 193 +7.1% -3.1% 60% 25% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.1% 25% -12.4%
10% -12.4% 16% -20.8%
15% ← realistic here -20.8% 10% -28.4%
20% -28.6% 6% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$4,950) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$400 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$24,243
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses116 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Est. fees paid−$1,293
Open positions3
Markets (closed)193 / 202
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$3,378
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Under 77¢ 56¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 90¢ 60¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10,184 −$19 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11,329 −$49 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $18,353 −$66 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,104 −$13 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,104 −$12 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,102 −$10 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,102 −$10 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,103 −$12 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,250 −$25 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5,280 −$29 -1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $25 +$9 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $845 +$212 +25%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$10 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $1,100 +$12 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $900 +$3 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1,099 +$13 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1,200 +$4 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $3,021 −$17 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $60 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $111 −$1 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $19,938 −$730 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10,027 +$5 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5,033 +$17 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $41,969 +$63 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $3,095 −$37 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $287 −$113 -39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,484 −$532 -36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2,438 −$801 -33%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $257 +$281 +109%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $11,307 +$1,352 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $2,726 +$580 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $398 +$128 +32%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 28 $349 +$37 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 26 $761 +$380 +50%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $24,950 −$1,989 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 25 $396 −$396 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $75 42m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5,073 48m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5,082 50m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $5,076 57m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $5,099 58m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5,088 59m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $5,107 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $5,091 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5,104 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5,091 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5,104 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5,092 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5,102 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5,093 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5,102 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5,093 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5,102 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5,091 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5,103 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $4,970 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $223 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $285 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $4,923 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $4,888 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $337 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $4,722 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $529 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $223 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 90¢ $25 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 76¢ $25 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.09 · official $108.09 (match) · 3500 history records