Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x699c…4b61 crypto 59 markets active 6d ago coverage 463d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$403 (+15%) realized +$403 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%34W / 25L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$351
other 0% −$12
weather 0% +$66
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+62.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -90.5% -91.4% 0% 0% -89.1%
≤90d 25 +168.0% +142.5% 44% 20% +1.7%
all 59 +80.0% +62.9% 58% 32% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.9% 32% +2.5%
10% +47.3% 29% -7.3%
15% +33.1% 22% -16.3%
20% +20.0% 19% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +133% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$403
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses34 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage463d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 29 $7 −$4 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 21 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 03 $5 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 30 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 29 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on March 28 Mar 28 $2 +$16 +802%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on March 28? Mar 28 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on March 28? Mar 28 $2 +$12 +463%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 27? Mar 27 $1 +$39 +5559%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 25 $30 −$5 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 25 $94 +$5 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Mar 25 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 25 $4 +$96 +2400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 24 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90k in April? Mar 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Mar 24 $72 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 24 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 24 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 24 $10 +$22 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 19 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$10 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 18 $9 +$19 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? Mar 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Jan 14 $194 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 08 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Dec 31 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $131 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $129 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 440 history records