Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x699f…d5c6
sports · 382 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$9,199 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,512 · open −$314
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$946
Realized+$9,512
Unrealized−$314
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses199 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions12
Markets (closed)370 / 382
History coverage94d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 12 History 370 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$415
14 days+$323
30 days+$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ 68¢ $182 $194 +$12 (+6%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ 44¢ $183 $165 −$18 (-10%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 51¢ 56¢ $119 $132 +$13 (+11%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 78¢ 86¢ $78 $86 +$9 (+11%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 63¢ 82¢ $54 $70 +$16 (+30%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 84¢ 99¢ $40 $48 +$7 (+18%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 28¢ 18¢ $77 $47 −$30 (-39%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 38¢ 32¢ $54 $46 −$8 (-15%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 28¢ 14¢ $54 $26 −$28 (-52%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 73¢ 88¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 57¢ 99¢ $14 $23 +$10 (+73%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 80¢ 90¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ 10¢ $96 $22 −$74 (-77%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 48¢ 12¢ $88 $21 −$67 (-76%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 37¢ 3¢ $92 $7 −$85 (-92%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 23¢ 10¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-54%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 14¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 12¢ 1¢ $40 $2 −$38 (-95%)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 58¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 29¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Seattle Mariners 45¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $161 −$160 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $80 −$17 -21%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $74 −$29 -39%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $84 −$25 -30%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $79 +$28 +35%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $432 −$59 -14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $95 +$27 +29%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $237 −$84 -36%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $432 +$120 +28%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $48 +$52 +110%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $41 +$15 +38%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $31 +$25 +80%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $122 +$218 +178%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $11 +$12 +106%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $62 +$40 +64%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $121 +$188 +155%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $35 +$9 +25%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $92 −$87 -95%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $101 −$66 -65%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $101 −$96 -95%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $19 −$19 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $22 +$14 +64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $101 +$129 +127%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $93 −$92 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $37 $0 -1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $94 −$30 -32%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $88 +$25 +29%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $32 +$5 +16%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $78 +$76 +98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 09 $41 −$41 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $89 −$14 -16%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $54 +$138 +256%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $60 −$10 -17%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $62 −$14 -22%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $99 +$94 +94%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $30 +$23 +77%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $46 +$22 +48%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $151 +$2 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $102 −$76 -74%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $62 +$41 +66%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $10 +$10 +97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $30 +$17 +56%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $10 +$20 +197%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $9 +$4 +40%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $26 −$26 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $12 +$17 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% +$12,319
other 29% −$3,888
world 1% +$767
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 72¢ $20 5m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $20 5m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $20 5m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $20 5m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 71¢ $20 5m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 24¢ $3 6m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 33¢ $21 7m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 18¢ $8 9m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $20 12m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $20 12m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ $6 12m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $20 13m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ $20 14m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 89¢ $20 18m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $8 20m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 88¢ $1 22m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 16¢ $5 25m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $20 26m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $20 26m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $20 27m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 51¢ $20 27m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 14¢ $5 28m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 14¢ $3 30m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $20 30m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $18 31m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 80¢ $20 31m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 85¢ $20 32m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 24¢ $20 34m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $14 34m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $20 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +8.8% -1.5% 58% 52% +0.0%
≤30d 84 +6.8% -3.4% 55% 50% -2.9%
≤90d 325 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 45% -8.3%
all 370 +5.3% -4.8% 54% 47% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 47% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 38% -12.3%
15% -22.2% 32% -20.7%
20% -29.8% 24% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $946.05 · official $946.08 (match) · 3500 history records