Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69a0…def0 other 55 markets active 11h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-6%) realized −$10 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate73%30W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$3
sports 20% −$9
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -5.0% -14.1% 71% 50% -10.8%
≤30d 41 -7.1% -16.0% 73% 49% -19.2%
≤90d 41 -7.1% -16.0% 73% 49% -19.2%
all 41 -7.1% -16.0% 73% 49% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 49% -19.2%
10% -24.0% 32% -26.9%
15% -31.3% 15% -34.0%
20% -38.1% 7% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses30 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)41 / 55
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Yes 87¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 $0 +17%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Myanmar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +36%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $2 +$2 +112%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$1 +48%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -96%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +35%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $2 $0 +12%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 $0 +10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +14%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 $0 +22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-11? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $2 10h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2 10h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $2 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $2 34h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $2 34h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $2 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 80¢ $2 3d
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 4d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 4d
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 91¢ $2 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 7d
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 10d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 92¢ $2 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 11d
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 85¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $34.96 (match) · 94 history records