Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69a2…3bee sports 459 markets active 14h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$484 (-5%) realized −$502 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%213W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$77
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$553
world 13% −$53
other 2% +$24
finance 0% +$13
politics 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.3% -20.7% 44% 31% -18.0%
≤30d 114 -11.6% -20.0% 43% 33% -32.1%
≤90d 424 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 42% -14.7%
all 424 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 42% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 42% -14.7%
10% -15.8% 37% -22.8%
15% -23.9% 34% -30.3%
20% -31.4% 32% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$502
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses213 / 211
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions35
Markets (closed)424 / 459
History coverage87d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 74¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+49%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 99¢ $25 $31 +$5 (+20%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 66¢ 83¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+26%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 94¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+52%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 98¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+158%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+11%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? No 78¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -49%
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5) Jun 18 $3 +$2 +83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $6 −$3 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -59%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $13 −$12 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -30%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -69%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $14 −$13 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $16 −$15 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $19 −$18 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $21 −$21 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $29 −$29 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 05 $28 −$27 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $32 −$32 -98%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 05 $36 −$35 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 05 $32 +$29 +90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $5 +$6 +114%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 03 $5 +$6 +119%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 02 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 19h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5) BUY PortlandFire 54¢ $3 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 22¢ $1 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 59¢ $3 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 54¢ $3 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 32¢ $2 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 72¢ $4 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $4 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $4 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 68¢ $4 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $1 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 36¢ $1 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 27¢ $1 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $3 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.49 · official $267.53 (match) · 1632 history records