Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69a5…b4ec crypto 66 markets active 4d ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$313 (+5%) realized +$317 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate92%60W / 5L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$313
economics 38% −$3
crypto 17% +$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 40 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -1.4% -10.8% 95% 0% -10.0%
all 65 -0.6% -10.1% 92% 2% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -5.2%
10% -18.7% 2% -14.3%
15% -26.5% 2% -22.6%
20% -33.7% 2% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×11.93 per $1 lost it wins $11.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$317
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses60 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage140d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $2,488 −$3 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $105 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 26? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
HYPE Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 25 $25 −$24 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 16d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,024 16d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,025 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $2,485 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2,488 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 17d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $1.22 (match) · 130 history records