Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x69a6…7a2c crypto 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,341 (-17%) realized −$5,338 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate66%202W / 102L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$449
14 days−$618
30 days−$1,183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$2,947
sports 24% −$413
other 5% −$354
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -39.0% -44.8% 47% 35% -68.9%
≤30d 99 -13.4% -21.7% 69% 45% -18.9%
≤90d 231 -15.7% -23.7% 64% 46% -23.7%
all 304 -9.6% -18.2% 66% 49% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 49% -20.4%
10% -26.0% 34% -28.0%
15% -33.2% 16% -35.0%
20% -39.7% 10% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$90 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$5,338
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses202 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)304 / 304
History coverage150d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Sebastian Ofner 80¢ 72¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +25%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 −$99 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $57 +$9 +15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$91 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$61 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 03 $48 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $39 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $32 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $20 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 03 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $56 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 03 $44 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $58 +$18 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $17 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $107 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 03 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner SELL Sebastian Ofner 100¢ $37 30m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 80¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 2¢ $1 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $28 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 22h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $7 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $93 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $100 2d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $66 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $57 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.81 · official $0.00 · 1139 history records