Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
69 0x69a8…68d0 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23 (+11%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$2
world 9% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +22.1% +10.5% 80% 80% +5.9%
≤30d 5 +22.1% +10.5% 80% 80% +5.9%
≤90d 5 +22.1% +10.5% 80% 80% +5.9%
all 5 +22.1% +10.5% 80% 80% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 80% +5.9%
10% -0.1% 60% -4.3%
15% -9.7% 60% -13.5%
20% -18.6% 20% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$30 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $18 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $16 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $20 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.80 · official $86.80 (match) · 13 history records