Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
69 0x69aa…015a other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$96 (+17%) realized +$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$220
crypto 18% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +25.4% +13.4% 70% 60% +22.7%
≤30d 10 +25.4% +13.4% 70% 60% +22.7%
≤90d 10 +25.4% +13.4% 70% 60% +22.7%
all 10 +25.4% +13.4% 70% 60% +22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.4% 60% +22.7%
10% ← realistic here +2.6% 50% +11.0%
15% -7.3% 50% +0.3%
20% -16.4% 30% -9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$9 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.75 per $1 lost it wins $8.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$53 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $175 +$68 +39%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$18 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $67 +$79 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +16%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $80 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 90¢ $155 50m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $243 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $175 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $68 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $146 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $7 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $36 30h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 30h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records