Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69ad…365a sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,205 (-21%) realized −$755 · open −$450
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%26W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$339
14 days+$260
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$574
other 31% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +80.0% +62.8% 50% 50% +73.2%
≤30d 21 +37.5% +24.4% 29% 29% +22.7%
≤90d 71 +3.3% -6.5% 37% 37% -16.8%
all 71 +3.3% -6.5% 37% 37% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 37% -16.8%
10% -15.5% 37% -24.8%
15% -23.6% 34% -32.0%
20% -31.1% 32% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$58 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized−$755
Unrealized−$450
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 45
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage80d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $177 $263 +$86 (+49%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 19¢ $450 $74 −$376 (-84%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $97 $54 −$42 (-44%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 23¢ $133 $15 −$118 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $128 −$125 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $184 +$342 +186%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $42 +$142 +334%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 −$15 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$11 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $16 +$7 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$78 +388%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $74 −$73 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $85 −$84 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 07 $10 +$76 +784%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 06 $50 −$49 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $50 −$49 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $57 −$56 -99%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $55 +$300 +550%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 May 28 $155 −$152 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $59 −$58 -99%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 May 21 $194 −$191 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $98 +$95 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $79 +$58 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $43 +$36 +83%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $23 +$20 +86%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 19 $11 +$12 +102%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline May 17 $12 −$12 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 15 $28 −$28 -98%
CF Pachuca leading at halftime? May 15 $12 +$17 +145%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 14 $11 +$18 +158%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $35 −$35 -99%
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 12 $20 +$16 +80%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? May 11 $79 −$76 -96%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $29 +$51 +172%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Nikola Bartunkova May 10 $99 −$99 -99%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $98 −$97 -99%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 09 $99 −$98 -99%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $107 −$106 -99%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $81 −$80 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5 May 09 $99 +$89 +89%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $152 −$150 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline May 09 $198 −$46 -23%
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5 May 09 $100 +$98 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $99 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $128 27h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY 34¢ $184 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $22 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $21 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $52 7d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $88 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 8d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 14d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $23 14d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 68¢ $16 14d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 14d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 14d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 15d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $77 15d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $17 15d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $17 16d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 17d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 50¢ $74 18d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $85 21d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 21d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 21d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 22d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $50 24d
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Indiana Fever 54¢ $57 29d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $299 29d
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $355 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.62 · official $407.85 (match) · 135 history records