Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x69ad…dcac
other · 9 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$130 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$180 · open −$50
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 1 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$180
14 days+$180
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 29¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 19¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $173 +$256 +148%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$69 +68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$60 -59%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $58 −$57 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $202 +$101 +50%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $72 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% +$180
sports 27% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.0% -31.3% 38% 38% +11.8%
≤30d 8 -24.0% -31.3% 38% 38% +11.8%
≤90d 8 -24.0% -31.3% 38% 38% +11.8%
all 8 -24.0% -31.3% 38% 38% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 38% +11.8%
10% -37.8% 38% +1.1%
15% -43.8% 38% -8.7%
20% -49.3% 25% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 17 history records