Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

69 0x69b2…30c5 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$288 (+29%) realized +$257 · open +$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +58% what you keep after slip

Net edge+58%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$163per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+64.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+82.0%	+64.7%	50%	50%	+66.6%
≤30d	4	+82.0%	+64.7%	50%	50%	+66.6%
≤90d	4	+82.0%	+64.7%	50%	50%	+66.6%
all	4	+82.0%	+64.7%	50%	50%	+66.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+64.7%	50%	+66.6%
10%	+48.9%	50%	+50.7%
15%	+34.5%	50%	+36.1%
20%	+21.3%	50%	+22.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +84% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +82% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$341 vs −$94 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$396

Realized+$257

Unrealized+$31

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$163

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	44¢	48¢	$191	$204	+$14 (+7%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	22¢	24¢	$174	$191	+$17 (+10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET	Jun 25	$300	+$232	+77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 25	$100	−$94	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET	Jun 25	$100	−$93	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET	Jun 25	$100	+$451	+451%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$200	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$532	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$80	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$300	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$100	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$100	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.81 · official $400.11 · 9 history records