Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x69b4…efae sports 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,388 (+5%) realized +$4,638 · open −$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%69W / 34L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$908per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$521est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$25
14 days−$330
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$3,154
other 9% +$449
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -33.7% -40.0% 50% 50% +3.0%
≤30d 17 +17.2% +6.0% 71% 53% -8.6%
≤90d 103 -1.6% -10.9% 67% 42% -5.8%
all 103 -1.6% -10.9% 67% 42% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 42% -5.8%
10% -19.5% 23% -14.8%
15% -27.2% 17% -23.1%
20% -34.4% 14% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,240) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$308 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,638
Unrealized−$250
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses69 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$521
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage71d
Avg bet$908
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Los Angeles Knight Riders 81¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $156 +$51 +33%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $271 +$46 +17%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $202 +$73 +36%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $228 +$78 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $502 −$502 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $752 +$54 +7%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $26 +$99 +388%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $51 +$71 +140%
Libema Open, Qualification: Ella Seidel vs Greet Minnen Jun 07 $152 +$86 +57%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Jun 05 $101 +$2 +2%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 05 $452 +$59 +13%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $152 +$90 +59%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $51 +$3 +7%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $502 −$19 -4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $509 −$509 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert May 24 $991 +$50 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Dellien vs Valentin Royer May 24 $871 +$125 +14%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $102 −$92 -90%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $2,712 −$1,776 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 23 $204 −$204 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 23 $306 −$306 -100%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Kent May 23 $510 −$510 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $1,010 +$27 +3%
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty May 22 $4 $0 +8%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $3,654 +$666 +18%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $3,013 +$516 +17%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $3,005 +$155 +5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $3,004 +$150 +5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $3,001 +$42 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $2,709 +$325 +12%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $1,013 −$978 -96%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $4,029 +$1,229 +30%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $2,018 +$546 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 09 $153 −$153 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $509 −$509 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $2,021 +$1,056 +52%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $214 −$209 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $139 −$116 -83%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $4,210 +$397 +9%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $4,005 +$153 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $3,014 +$536 +18%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $3,014 +$557 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 81¢ $251 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL New Zealand 100¢ $207 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 75¢ $156 4d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 12¢ $26 6d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 85¢ $271 7d
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 99¢ $275 8d
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 72¢ $202 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 95¢ $306 9d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 70¢ $228 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $502 12d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova SELL Magda Linette 100¢ $53 16d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova BUY Magda Linette 94¢ $50 16d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Dalma Galfi 100¢ $752 17d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 93¢ $701 17d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Emerson Jones 50¢ $20 17d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Emerson Jones 50¢ $19 17d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Emerson Jones 50¢ $10 17d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi SELL Emerson Jones 50¢ $5 17d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 39¢ $51 17d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Emerson Jones 46¢ $51 17d
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 14¢ $51 19d
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Kasatkina 50¢ $50 19d
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy SELL Panna Udvardy 100¢ $125 19d
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 20¢ $26 20d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz 41¢ $51 20d
Libema Open, Qualification: Ella Seidel vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 63¢ $152 21d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet SELL Leyre Romero Gormaz 67¢ $94 22d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet SELL Leyre Romero Gormaz 67¢ $2 22d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet SELL Leyre Romero Gormaz 67¢ $1 22d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet SELL Leyre Romero Gormaz 67¢ $6 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 241 history records