Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x69b5…d68d
other · 11 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$8 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 2 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 5? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$3 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 04 $3 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% +$2
weather 21% −$5
sports 11% −$5
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 88¢ $2 8m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $7 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $1 4h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $1 4h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $1 4h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $1 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $1 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $4 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $4 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 6? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 8d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +37.2% +24.2% 67% 50% +3.9%
≤30d 9 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 33% -17.1%
≤90d 9 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 33% -17.1%
all 9 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 33% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 33% -17.1%
10% -25.1% 22% -25.1%
15% -32.4% 11% -32.3%
20% -39.0% 11% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.48 · official $2.48 (match) · 30 history records