Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69b7…ae1d sports 818 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,690 (-4%) realized −$1,882 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%470W / 347L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$289est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$282
14 days−$198
30 days−$513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,814
crypto 1% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -15.5% -23.5% 45% 43% -31.7%
≤30d 127 -24.7% -31.9% 43% 39% -28.6%
≤90d 534 -12.4% -20.7% 52% 44% -14.6%
all 817 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 47% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 47% -13.3%
10% -22.9% 28% -21.6%
15% -30.3% 15% -29.2%
20% -37.2% 8% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$1,882
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses470 / 347
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions1
Markets (closed)817 / 818
History coverage134d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 817 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner LYON 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$6 -91%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$7 -49%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 −$2 -32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$6 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $10 +$7 +74%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 14 $13 +$9 +66%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$4 +35%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$8 -85%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $31 +$6 +21%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$14 -63%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$2 -27%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $21 $0 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$1 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$3 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$3 +43%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $11 −$8 -74%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$3 +40%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$2 +27%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $29 −$12 -40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $14 +$5 +32%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$7 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 −$7 -50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$7 -67%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$5 +181%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$4 +31%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $9 +$3 +36%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $11 −$2 -23%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$2 -45%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $36 −$25 -70%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $32 −$3 -10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $149 −$50 -34%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $16 +$8 +51%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: EDGY (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) Jun 10 $6 −$3 -49%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $9 +$1 +17%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 1 Jun 10 $11 −$6 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 51¢ $10 4m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 75¢ $9 23m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 6¢ $1 28m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 60¢ $7 35m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $3 47m
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $4 1h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 74¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 7¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 55¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 79¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 38¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 61¢ $11 8h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 63¢ $17 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $17 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $11 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $30 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $11 14h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $5 18h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 56¢ $3 18h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) SELL Knicks 94¢ $17 18h
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) SELL Knicks 99¢ $22 18h
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $13 19h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $10 20h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 60¢ $23 20h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $20 22h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $10 22h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 59¢ $6 23h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 98¢ $16 23h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 72¢ $12 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.95 · official $9.95 (match) · 2381 history records