Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x69bd…7f3c
other · 241 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$70 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$80
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses22 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage131d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $492 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,179 −$4 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $213 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $736 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $943 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $695 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $82 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $309 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $228 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $498 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $99 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $548 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $592 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $315 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 02 $276 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $322 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $256 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $187 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $684 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 25 $198 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 24 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $467 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $320 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $593 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $571 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$42
sports 25% −$24
economics 6% −$8
culture 6% −$7
world 5% −$3
crypto 5% +$23
politics 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $80 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $81 2h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 14h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $81 15h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 24h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $81 25h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $81 27h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $81 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $81 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $81 35h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $81 37h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $81 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $81 44h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $81 46h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $81 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $81 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $82 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $82 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $82 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $82 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $82 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $82 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $82 3d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $82 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $82 3d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $82 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 57 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.0% -9.6% 6% 1% -9.6%
all 240 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.22 · official $80.22 (match) · 1316 history records