Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

69 0x69be…3ac4 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$72 (-1%) realized −$164 · open +$92

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$254per market

Trades / day3.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$2,852now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$61

7 days−$188

14 days−$255

30 days−$255

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-13.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+11.2%	+0.6%	50%	50%	-16.4%
≤30d	15	-3.9%	-13.1%	47%	40%	-17.9%
≤90d	15	-3.9%	-13.1%	47%	40%	-17.9%
all	15	-3.9%	-13.1%	47%	40%	-17.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.1%	40%	-17.9%
10%	-21.4%	33%	-25.8%
15%	-29.0%	33%	-32.9%
20%	-36.0%	20%	-39.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late +23% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$73 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$2,852

Realized−$164

Unrealized+$92

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Open positions7

Markets (closed)15 / 22

History coverage11d

Avg bet$254

Trades / day3.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	15¢	$2,139	$2,228	+$88 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$300	$292	−$8 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$120	$119	−$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	86¢	99¢	$50	$57	+$7 (+15%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	63¢	66¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	52¢	$51	$52	+$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	50¢	52¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$1	$0	-2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$278	−$26	-10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$122	−$28	-23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$172	+$20	+12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$52	+$68	+129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$52	+$28	+55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$181	+$99	+55%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$1,234	−$376	-30%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$93	−$34	-37%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$201	+$79	+40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$47	+$23	+48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$198	+$12	+6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$70	−$70	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$309	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$1,231	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$687	9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$252	14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$94	14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	20¢	$192	14h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$22	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$51	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$52	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$52	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$52	2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$146	5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$64	5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$133	5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$59	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$57	5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$132	5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$858	5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$58	5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$121	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$181	6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	19¢	$41	6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$9	8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$201	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$47	10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$198	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,852.18 · official $2,852.21 (match) · 54 history records