Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

69 0x69c2…b039 crypto 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 596d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$255 (-24%) realized −$255 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$348per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 596d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-24.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+26.0%	+14.0%	50%	50%	+0.6%
≤30d	2	+26.0%	+14.0%	50%	50%	+0.6%
≤90d	2	+26.0%	+14.0%	50%	50%	+0.6%
all	3	-16.0%	-24.0%	33%	33%	-76.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.0%	33%	-76.1%
10%	-31.3%	33%	-78.4%
15%	-37.9%	33%	-80.5%
20%	-44.0%	33%	-82.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$129 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.13 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$255

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage596d

Avg bet$348

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21?	Jun 22	$31	−$28	-88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21?	Jun 21	$24	+$34	+141%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 04	$989	−$229	-23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21?	SELL Yes	4¢	$4	29m
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21?	SELL Yes	60¢	$58	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21?	BUY Yes	23¢	$24	16h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21?	BUY Yes	30¢	$31	16h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	42¢	$129	594d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	42¢	$630	594d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	45¢	$989	595d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records