Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69c3…6937 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate53%24W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$3
other 15% +$1
finance 5% $0
politics 4% +$4
weather 4% +$2
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$16
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 19 -0.6% -10.1% 53% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 19 -0.6% -10.1% 53% 0% -9.2%
all 45 -0.4% -9.9% 53% 7% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 7% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses24 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage482d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 88¢ 89¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $5 −$1 -19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $20 +$1 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $51 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $9 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $27 +$1 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $0 $0 -38%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $3 $0 +7%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $9 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $2 $0 +22%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 28 $6 $0 +3%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump say Tariff 5+ times during his presser with Starmer Mar 04 $3 +$6 +170%
Robert Morris vs. IUPUI Mar 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Feb 27 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump say Gold during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27? Feb 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 by Thursday? Feb 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on February 27? Feb 26 $17 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $7 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $6 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $25 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $31 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $50 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $34 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $16 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $9 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $10 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $39 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $22 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $4 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $5 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $42 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $7 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.05 · official $40.05 (match) · 126 history records