Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
69 0x69c4…ea1e sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+13%) realized +$55 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$56
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +13.4% +2.6% 62% 53% +1.3%
≤30d 47 +13.4% +2.6% 62% 53% +1.3%
≤90d 47 +13.4% +2.6% 62% 53% +1.3%
all 47 +13.4% +2.6% 62% 53% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 53% +1.3%
10% -7.2% 40% -8.4%
15% -16.2% 30% -17.3%
20% -24.4% 26% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Gentle Mates 86¢ 100¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 41¢ 84¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+104%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $39 +$5 +14%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $14 +$1 +10%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $14 +$1 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$2 -35%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $5 −$2 -37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 $0 +3%
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $13 +$6 +50%
Valorant: INTZ vs EGO (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B Jun 18 $8 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$1 -46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$4 +19%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $20 +$6 +28%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $5 +$6 +123%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 17 $4 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $5 +$7 +145%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1 +$2 +188%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$4 -74%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $5 −$3 -61%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$5 +49%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -90%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$4 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$17 +34%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$7 -65%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $13 +$5 +36%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$4 +216%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $2 +$2 +123%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 86¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 11¢ $1 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $0 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $8 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $35 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 81¢ $12 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $39 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 79¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 95¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 86¢ $14 5h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 18¢ $3 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $5 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 32¢ $3 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $2 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $3 26h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2 29h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $12 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $16 31h
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner BUY ShindeN 65¢ $6 42h
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner BUY ShindeN 68¢ $7 42h
Valorant: INTZ vs EGO (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B SELL INTZ 95¢ $10 42h
Valorant: INTZ vs EGO (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B BUY INTZ 83¢ $8 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 52¢ $0 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 52¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 50¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed SELL ECHO 93¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY ECHO 75¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 7¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 22¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.10 · official $38.10 (match) · 118 history records