Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x69c9…ae07 crypto 525 markets active 14h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+1%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%348W / 177L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$11
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.8% -15.7% 60% 60% -15.5%
≤30d 491 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 65% -10.0%
≤90d 525 -1.4% -10.8% 66% 66% -9.0%
all 525 -1.4% -10.8% 66% 66% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 66% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 58% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 48% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 34% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses348 / 177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)525 / 525
History coverage32d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 525 Trades
no open positions (136 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1028 history records