Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69ca…b3f4 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-2%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$5
14 days+$34
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$6
other 29% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -3.2% -12.5% 26% 17% -9.8%
≤30d 58 -11.8% -20.2% 26% 17% -11.4%
≤90d 59 -8.2% -17.0% 27% 19% -11.2%
all 59 -8.2% -17.0% 27% 19% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 19% -11.2%
10% -24.9% 19% -19.7%
15% -32.2% 10% -27.5%
20% -38.8% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 43
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage31d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 +$36 +355%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $243 −$48 -20%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$6 +29%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$10 -25%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $71 −$40 -57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -8%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $122 +$32 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $122 +$52 +43%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$2 -7%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 +$22 +25%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 −$9 -6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$3 -5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$10 -21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $91 −$10 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $152 −$12 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $193 +$73 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $111 −$21 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Canada 66¢ $47 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $10 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 85¢ $10 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 37¢ $10 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $10 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 53¢ $10 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $10 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $10 7h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 41¢ $16 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $10 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $10 7h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) SELL South Africa 89¢ $10 8h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY South Africa 91¢ $10 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 8h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 25¢ $10 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $10 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 78¢ $10 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $10 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.04 · official $20.04 (match) · 506 history records