Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x69cc…5998 sports 80 markets active 2d ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+13%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 45L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$19
other 13% −$5
crypto 11% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +23.2% +11.5% 50% 50% +51.6%
≤30d 10 +23.2% +11.5% 50% 50% +51.6%
≤90d 10 +23.2% +11.5% 50% 50% +51.6%
all 80 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 44% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 44% +1.1%
10% -23.5% 42% -8.6%
15% -30.9% 41% -17.4%
20% -37.7% 39% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage349d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $3 +$4 +119%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$17 +342%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +178%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. 76ers Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $3 +$2 +75%
Steelers vs. Bengals Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Tigers vs. Mariners Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Lions vs. Chiefs Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Dolphins vs. Browns Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 02 $2 +$3 +160%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $5 +$4 +75%
Rams vs. Jaguars Oct 30 $1 +$1 +64%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 12 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $6 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockies vs. Mariners Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Twins vs. Rockies Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rays vs. Orioles Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Giants vs. Braves Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Astros vs. Mariners Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockies vs. Orioles Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Marlins vs. Phillies Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
White Sox vs. Yankees Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Tigers vs. Rangers Sep 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Sep 26 $1 +$1 +67%
Mets vs. Cubs Sep 26 $1 +$1 +92%
Mariners vs. Angels Jul 27 $1 +$1 +79%
Guardians vs. Royals Jul 27 $1 +$1 +117%
Marlins vs. Brewers Jul 27 $1 +$1 +144%
Padres vs. Marlins Jul 23 $1 +$1 +75%
Tigers vs. Pirates Jul 23 $1 +$1 +117%
Cardinals vs. Rockies Jul 23 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jul 14 $1 +$2 +233%
Phillies vs. Padres Jul 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 42h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $1 43h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $1 43h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $3 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $23 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $5 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 5d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 36¢ $1 104d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No $1 112d
Heat vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 46¢ $1 141d
Kings vs. 76ers BUY Kings 23¢ $1 141d
Pistons vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 31¢ $1 143d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 144d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 56¢ $2 146d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 34¢ $1 146d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 149d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 149d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Dodgers 29¢ $1 230d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Dodgers 57¢ $1 230d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 230d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Dodgers 57¢ $5 231d
Lions vs. Chiefs BUY Lions 43¢ $1 250d
Dolphins vs. Browns BUY Dolphins 41¢ $1 250d
Rams vs. Jaguars BUY Rams 61¢ $1 250d
Steelers vs. Bengals BUY Steelers 72¢ $1 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records