Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69cf…5077 crypto 129 markets active 15h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+1%) realized +$52 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate66%84W / 43L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$25
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$72
other 1% $0
sports 0% −$11
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.0% -35.7% 40% 0% -20.3%
≤30d 49 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 39% -21.9%
≤90d 127 +1.4% -8.2% 66% 34% -10.4%
all 127 +1.4% -8.2% 66% 34% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 34% -10.4%
10% -17.0% 21% -19.0%
15% -25.0% 15% -26.8%
20% -32.4% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses84 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage60d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? No 93¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Love Island USA be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 -1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $24 −$6 -26%
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 24 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 24 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 24 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 24 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 24 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 23 $31 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 23 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 23 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 23 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 23 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 23 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 23 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 23 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 23 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 23 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 23 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 23 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 94¢ $5 14h
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL No 97¢ $5 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 93¢ $5 14h
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL No 98¢ $5 14h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 75¢ $9 36h
Will Love Island USA be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 75¢ $6 2d
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8 4d
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0 BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4 BUY Yes 68¢ $7 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.13 · official $25.13 (match) · 350 history records