Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x69cf…a6f4 world 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 26% +$4
other 24% −$4
politics 21% −$1
world 17% −$4
culture 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.0% -15.8% 43% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 9 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 0% -10.2%
all 12 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 0% -10.8%
10% -28.2% 0% -19.3%
15% -35.1% 0% -27.1%
20% -41.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage147d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 86¢ 86¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 88¢ 88¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 87¢ 88¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $42 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 27 $55 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 27 $76 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $76 +$1 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $63 −$5 -9%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Mar 29 $2 $0 -15%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Feb 28 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $51 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 87¢ $17 1h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $69 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $42 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 90¢ $75 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $42 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 90¢ $76 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $77 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $43 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 20d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $48 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $48 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $76 20d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 20d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 33d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 90d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $2 90d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 119d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 119d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 119d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? BUY 80k 98¢ $1 146d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? BUY 80k 98¢ $1 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.87 · official $164.77 (match) · 66 history records