Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
69 0x69d1…f7fa crypto 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$230 (+7%) realized +$234 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate78%29W / 8L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$434
7 days+$454
14 days+$454
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$445
other 3% +$5
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +11.9% +1.3% 78% 65% +3.2%
≤30d 37 +11.9% +1.3% 78% 65% +3.2%
≤90d 37 +11.9% +1.3% 78% 65% +3.2%
all 37 +11.9% +1.3% 78% 65% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 65% +3.2%
10% -8.4% 54% -6.6%
15% -17.3% 35% -15.7%
20% -25.4% 16% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$70 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$234
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses29 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage243d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $403 +$40 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$198 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $152 +$27 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$15 +29%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $17 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $143 −$140 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $143 +$56 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $72 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $67 +$42 +63%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 +$1 +7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $403 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $152 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $62 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $90 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.49 · official $16.49 (match) · 115 history records