Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69db…283a sports 949 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,112 (-8%) realized −$21,567 · open −$545
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%347W / 599L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$1,531est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$1,137
14 days−$959
30 days−$37,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$26,299
other 19% +$2,910
world 0% +$144
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$235
politics 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -50.6% -55.3% 23% 23% -35.4%
≤30d 147 -68.8% -71.8% 14% 14% -82.9%
≤90d 305 -16.6% -24.6% 35% 35% -15.5%
all 946 -14.6% -22.7% 37% 37% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 37% -16.6%
10% -30.1% 36% -24.6%
15% -36.9% 36% -31.9%
20% -43.1% 35% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$409 vs −$276 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21,567
Unrealized−$545
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses347 / 599
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$1,531
Open positions3
Markets (closed)946 / 949
History coverage209d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 946 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 40¢ 0¢ $271 $0 −$271 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 23¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Team Vitality 50¢ 0¢ $168 $0 −$168 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $63 +$48 +76%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $178 −$176 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $124 −$122 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $185 +$225 +122%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $322 −$318 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$129 +158%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $554 −$545 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $59 −$58 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $351 +$400 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $70 +$90 +129%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $220 −$216 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $44 −$44 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $155 −$153 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $319 +$362 +114%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $306 +$214 +70%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $430 −$424 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $154 −$151 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $142 −$139 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $107 −$105 -98%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $226 +$313 +139%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $267 +$303 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 +$161 +79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $96 −$95 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $113 −$111 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $80 −$78 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $205 +$215 +105%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 07 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 06 $60 −$59 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 06 $180 −$177 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $42 −$41 -97%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $215 +$266 +123%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $96 −$94 -98%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $174 −$171 -98%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $32 −$31 -98%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 2 Winner May 31 $23 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 21¢ $47 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 16¢ $41 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 25¢ $61 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 44¢ $30 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 45¢ $46 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $46 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 59¢ $78 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $64 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $140 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 25h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 30¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $40 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $111 25h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $52 32h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $63 32h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $53 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $124 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $125 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $49 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $135 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 49¢ $29 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $0.74 (match) · 3389 history records