Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x69dc…0cf5
crypto · 377 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$3,308 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$343 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,166
Realized+$343
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses242 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions42
Markets (closed)337 / 377
History coverage30d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day106.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 42 History 337 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$61
14 days−$40
30 days+$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 75¢ 90¢ $750 $905 +$155 (+21%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $920 $905 −$15 (-2%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $625 $629 +$4 (+1%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming 80¢ 100¢ $272 $338 +$66 (+24%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $247 $283 +$36 (+15%)
Concrete FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $231 $213 −$18 (-8%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 84¢ 94¢ $107 $119 +$13 (+12%)
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 28¢ $67 $91 +$24 (+36%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 80¢ 80¢ $88 $89 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 87¢ 64¢ $96 $71 −$25 (-26%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 6¢ 18¢ $22 $67 +$45 (+200%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No 95¢ 96¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 72¢ 34¢ $105 $49 −$57 (-54%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by June 30? No 75¢ 84¢ $41 $46 +$5 (+11%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 65¢ 100¢ $26 $40 +$14 (+53%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) T1 81¢ 100¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+23%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+7%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by June 30? No 87¢ 57¢ $44 $29 −$15 (-34%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 94¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 66¢ 88¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Virtus.pro 74¢ 75¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by June 30? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $23 $19 −$5 (-20%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by June 30? No 82¢ 96¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+18%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 63¢ 42¢ $14 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $241 +$44 +18%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$1 +5%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $63 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $58 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $162 +$23 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $148 +$12 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $422 +$53 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $119 +$16 +13%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$5 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $7 +$3 +45%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$11 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $214 +$21 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $200 +$35 +17%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $42 −$3 -6%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $113 +$59 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $28 −$18 -65%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $222 −$27 -12%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $163 −$95 -58%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $139 +$18 +13%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $265 −$235 -89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $573 −$254 -44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$6 +17%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $452 +$188 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $961 +$439 +46%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $586 +$73 +12%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $359 +$55 +15%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $84 −$18 -21%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$12 +64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $915 +$276 +30%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,421 +$99 +7%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $884 +$206 +23%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $59 +$21 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $261 +$139 +54%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $993 −$985 -99%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% +$323
sports 23% −$325
other 5% +$189
tech 1% +$81
weather 1% +$60
world 0% +$4
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $9 0m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $4 0m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $9 0m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $9 0m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $9 0m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $9 0m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $9 1m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 1m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $9 1m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $9 1m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $9 1m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 75¢ $4 1m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $9 1m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $9 1m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $4 1m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $9 1m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $9 1m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 75¢ $4 2m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $4 2m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $4 2m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 75¢ $4 3m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $4 4m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 74¢ $4 6m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 74¢ $4 7m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 74¢ $4 8m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 63¢ $3 12m
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) BUY Top Esports 71¢ $1 17m
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) BUY Top Esports 71¢ $2 17m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $3 19m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $5 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -2.9% -12.1% 70% 48% -9.9%
≤30d 337 -1.4% -10.8% 72% 39% -9.0%
≤90d 337 -1.4% -10.8% 72% 39% -9.0%
all 337 -1.4% -10.8% 72% 39% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover106.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 39% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 19% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 13% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,166.47 · official $4,165.54 (match) · 3500 history records