Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69df…fa38 other 18 markets active 7h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$455 (-28%) realized −$455 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$342
sports 7% −$50
crypto 4% −$57
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -38.6% -44.5% 44% 33% -38.3%
≤30d 18 -38.6% -44.5% 44% 33% -38.3%
≤90d 18 -38.6% -44.5% 44% 33% -38.3%
all 18 -38.6% -44.5% 44% 33% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 33% -38.3%
10% -49.8% 33% -44.2%
15% -54.6% 22% -49.6%
20% -59.1% 11% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$70 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$455
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 +$24 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 −$126 -79%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$34 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$21 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$34 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $64 +$3 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $148 +$15 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $444 −$291 -66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $80 −$80 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 +$102 +40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 20h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $49 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $160 29h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $81 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $76 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $58 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $67 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $64 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $47 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $292 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $99 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $146 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $138 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records