Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
69 0x69e3…8d3f politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$2
sports 27% −$1
other 8% −$1
economics 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage176d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 06 $95 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $197 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $197 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $197 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $197 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $197 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $194 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $195 $0 -0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 31 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 14h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $95 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $95 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 37d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 38d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $95 43d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $96 43d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $96 45d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $96 46d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $97 66d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $97 67d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $97 69d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $97 70d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 86d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $197 86d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 95d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 95d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 98d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 99d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $197 101d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $197 101d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 102d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 103d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $197 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records