Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x69e3…0078 sports 373 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,371 (-1%) realized −$2,312 · open +$941
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%138W / 249L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$484est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$339
7 days+$1,338
14 days+$2,784
30 days+$2,150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$842
crypto 10% −$1,192
other 4% +$973
finance 0% −$1
world 0% −$77
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +0.7% -8.9% 9% 9% +46.4%
≤30d 88 +1.6% -8.1% 25% 22% +1.5%
≤90d 143 +3.1% -6.8% 30% 27% -13.7%
all 387 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 33% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 33% -10.3%
10% -23.4% 32% -18.9%
15% -30.8% 29% -26.7%
20% -37.6% 26% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$171 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$3,426
Realized−$2,312
Unrealized+$941
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses138 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$484
Open positions10
Markets (closed)387 / 373
History coverage183d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 96¢ $800 $1,485 +$685 (+86%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 60¢ 72¢ $666 $794 +$128 (+19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $204 $294 +$90 (+44%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $220 +$20 (+10%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $132 $214 +$82 (+62%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $162 −$38 (-19%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $71 $101 +$30 (+42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $42 $49 +$7 (+18%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $70 $13 −$57 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $509 −$29 -6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$663 +1290%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $39 +$406 +1038%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $70 +$930 +1329%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $166 +$605 +365%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $576 −$483 -84%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $612 −$316 -52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $51 +$227 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,203 +$1,109 +35%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 −$197 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $812 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $479 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $509 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $674 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,425.77 · official $3,425.77 (match) · 1084 history records