Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

69 0x69e4…14e7 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$108 (+18%) realized +$145 · open −$37

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +108% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip

Net edge+73%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%4W / 14L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day12.2pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)+87.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+107.6%	+87.8%	22%	22%	+82.1%
≤30d	18	+107.6%	+87.8%	22%	22%	+82.1%
≤90d	18	+107.6%	+87.8%	22%	22%	+82.1%
all	18	+107.6%	+87.8%	22%	22%	+82.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+87.8%	22%	+82.1%
10%	+69.8%	22%	+64.7%
15%	+53.4%	22%	+48.8%
20%	+38.4%	22%	+34.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +101% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +108% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late +211% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$77 vs −$11 · ×6.94 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.26 per $1 lost it wins $9.26

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$73

Realized+$145

Unrealized−$37

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses4 / 14

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 21

History coverage2d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day12.2

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Over	50¢	36¢	$100	$73	−$27 (-27%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$20	$0	+0%
Uruguay leading at halftime?	Jun 22	$10	+$123	+1196%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$26	+$74	+289%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$4	$0	+0%
Cabo Verde to win the second half?	Jun 21	$10	+$47	+461%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$4	$0	+0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$31	−$15	-48%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals	Jun 21	$1	$0	+0%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals	Jun 21	$10	$0	+0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$48	−$17	-36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$30	$0	+0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$51	$0	+0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$51	−$1	-3%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 21	$20	$0	+0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$86	+$65	+76%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first?	Jun 20	$10	$0	+0%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$31	$0	+0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$20	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$102	1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina vs. Aust	BUY	17¢	$10	6h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	23h
Uruguay leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$133	24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	88¢	$100	24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	24h
Cabo Verde to win the second half?	SELL Yes	64¢	$58	24h
Uruguay leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	25h
Cabo Verde to win the second half?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$26	26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	32¢	$4	27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	95¢	$4	27h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	28h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	28h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	46¢	$10	29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	23¢	$12	29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	53¢	$31	31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	43¢	$31	31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	65¢	$48	32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$30	32h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$51	46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	54¢	$49	46h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$51	46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	56¢	$86	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$31	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$20	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.10 · official $75.62 · 30 history records