Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69e4…9bac sports 764 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$20 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%358W / 405L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$1,003est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$668
14 days−$926
30 days−$1,586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$291
other 4% −$491
crypto 2% −$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -15.9% -23.9% 38% 38% -23.3%
≤30d 194 -17.0% -24.9% 39% 37% -16.1%
≤90d 575 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 42% -9.9%
all 763 -7.3% -16.2% 47% 42% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 42% -10.1%
10% -24.2% 39% -18.7%
15% -31.5% 32% -26.6%
20% -38.2% 26% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$44 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses358 / 405
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,003
Open positions1
Markets (closed)763 / 764
History coverage138d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 763 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 35¢ 18¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 263 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $37 +$38 +105%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $29 +$45 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $29 −$29 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $85 −$83 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $53 −$53 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $16 +$37 +226%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $15 +$13 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $81 −$79 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $196 −$191 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $172 −$168 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,512 −$532 -21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $597 +$76 +13%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $439 +$384 +88%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $225 +$214 +95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $314 −$90 -28%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $165 +$150 +91%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $129 +$87 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$79 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$14 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $117 −$43 -36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $404 −$15 -4%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $135 +$254 +188%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $190 −$55 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $141 −$110 -78%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $213 +$88 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $126 −$45 -35%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $123 −$121 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 13 $153 +$131 +85%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 13 $219 −$66 -30%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $93 −$92 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $98 −$4 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $298 +$22 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $192 −$189 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $336 +$153 +46%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $217 −$214 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $224 −$221 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $294 +$147 +50%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $124 +$109 +88%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $169 +$257 +152%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $37 +$38 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $51 56m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $75 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $37 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $74 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 39¢ $29 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $29 27h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 43¢ $49 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 43¢ $51 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 47¢ $85 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $53 3d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $53 3d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $16 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 54¢ $27 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $28 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $81 6d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 28¢ $196 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $172 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 38¢ $367 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $681 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $679 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $933 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $934 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $898 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $673 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 87¢ $152 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 89¢ $445 6d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 99¢ $823 6d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 52¢ $439 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $439 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.71 · official $25.71 (match) · 1652 history records