Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x69e4…d1e3 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$13
politics 12% −$8
other 4% +$2
sports 1% −$42
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 +5.4% -4.6% 20% 7% -7.3%
≤90d 41 -9.7% -18.3% 24% 15% -13.1%
all 54 -7.5% -16.3% 24% 11% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 11% -9.9%
10% -24.3% 11% -18.5%
15% -31.7% 9% -26.4%
20% -38.4% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage613d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $9 +$7 +83%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $10 +$8 +72%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $7 +$7 +89%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 06 $17 +$5 +30%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 30 $20 +$30 +150%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Ducks vs. Canucks Mar 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 24 $22 +$18 +82%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $44 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $13,534 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $9 8d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 21d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.12 · official $25.12 (match) · 272 history records