Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x69e9…6a88
crypto · 55 markets active 17h ago
0.0score
−$98 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open −$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)45 / 55
History coverage34d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 10 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$41
14 days−$34
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 14¢ $80 $29 −$51 (-64%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 19¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will "Home" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Yes 50¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by June 30? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $29 −$23 -81%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +104%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 30 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 30 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 10 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% −$75
crypto 37% $0
other 11% −$22
sports 3% +$4
tech 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 17h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $1 17h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 3¢ $5 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 21h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 23h
Will "Home" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -41.3% -46.9% 32% 32% -68.7%
≤30d 35 -26.0% -33.1% 37% 37% -35.6%
≤90d 45 -31.5% -38.0% 33% 33% -37.7%
all 45 -31.5% -38.0% 33% 33% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 33% -37.7%
10% -43.9% 31% -43.7%
15% -49.3% 29% -49.1%
20% -54.3% 29% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.66 · official $37.66 (match) · 86 history records